UC Waitlist Stats and What it Means in Terms of Getting In

Here’s a sobering thought:  UC Berkeley’s 2025 freshman waitlist had 6500 applicants on it. None got admitted.

What’s up with that?

As I wrote in my blog years ago, waitlists originally served a purpose one might expect. You were a strong applicant and should room emerge in your chosen major you might be rolled into the acceptance pile. However, with the explosion of college rankings and the obsession with strong ranking placement, campuses have began using waitlists as a way to manipulate the yield.

What is Yield?

Yield is the number of students offered admission who actually enroll. To ensure a strong ranking one element is a high yield. If 80% of the students offered admission choose not to attend that wreaks havoc on the rankings.

The waitlist shrinks risk. If a student holds out on the waitlist, sweating it out after regular admissions have been announced that student is far more likely to commit . Hence, risk is mitigated.

Back when I first wrote about this concept, not too many UCs were using a waitlist to manipulate yield — Davis being the notable exception (in my opinion).  Now it’s common practice across universities throughout the land.

Waitlists are still used to fill vacancies because the second factor in a clean admissions cycle is to accurately calculate space available versus number of students who commit.

For example, let’s say there are 300 spots open for a major and two-thirds commit. That leaves 100 open seats. And let’s say those stats have remained relatively stable for the last three years. One might be tempted to admit 400 students, figuring 100 will go elsewhere. But what if the yield changes and now more students are admitted than there is space?

Factoring in these components, it’s easy to see why waitlists have exploded. And when students ask what are the odds of getting off a waitlist, it’s hard to say because there are continual fluctuations.

Let’s take a look.

---

Fall 2025 UC waitlist acceptance rates (freshmen)

Eight of the nine UC campuses offer undergrad waitlists, the exception being Merced. The figures below are noted as accurate but may have some final fluctuations. The percentage is based on the number of students who opted into the waitlist.

UC Berkeley

• 2025:  0%
  2024: 0.33%.
• 2023:  24%
• 2022: 1%

UCLA

• 2025: 11%
• 2024: 13%
• 2023: 12%
• 2022: 3%

UC Santa Barbara

• 2025: 53%
• 2024: 82%
• 2023: 57%
• 2022: 50%

UC San Diego

• 2025: 14%
• 2024: 16.5%
• 2023: 15%
• 2022: 4.67%

UC Irvine

• 2025: 31%
• 2024: 47-48%
• 2023: 85%
• 2022: 2.12%

UC Davis

• 2025: 40-45%
• 2024: 25%
• 2023: 22-23%
• 2022: 19-20%

UC Santa Cruz

• 2025: 21.7%
• 2024: 58.75%
• 2023: 58.75
• 2022: 8.69%

UC Riverside

• 2025: 0%
• 2024: 38.6%
• 2023: 14.18%
• 2022: 19.2%

If you get on a waitlist, now what?

If the waitlist does not permit a Continuing Letter of Intent (a waitlist letter), there’s not much you can do except to opt in. But if a Waitlist Letter is permitted, then I urge you to take advantage. The key is to really sell yourself and explain why that particular campus offers things no other campus has.

I’m often asked if one strategy might be to offer to change majors. The short answer is NO. You’re stuck with major listed on your application.

---

As always, I offer waitlist letter editing and support. Please reach out if you need guidance.